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The Economic Impact of the 2016 Coup Attempt in Turkey

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Overview of the Coup Attempt

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    The attempted coup on July 15, 2016 by FETÖ caused significant economic damage in Turkey.

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    The coup left behind grieving families, psychological trauma, and disrupted public order, leading to severe economic repercussions.

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    Experts noted that FETÖ inflicted heavy blows on Turkey's economy not only through the coup but also via the operations on December 17-25, 2013.

Economic Costs

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    The total estimated economic cost of the coup exceeded $400 billion, including direct and indirect losses.

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    Numan Kurtulmuş, a former AK Parti leader, emphasized the coup's impact on exchange rates and interest rates.

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    Those costs resulted in a significant decline in foreign investments, with direct foreign investments plunging from $19.3 billion in 2015 to $7.7 billion in 2020.

Impact on Economic Indicators

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    Following the coup attempt, the BIST 100 index plunged by 7.08% on the first trading day.

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    Dollar/TL rate jumped from 2.87 to 3.02 amidst the news of the coup.

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    Despite a 0.8% contraction in the third quarter of 2016, Turkey's economy showed signs of recovery in the fourth quarter.

Decline in Foreign Capital and Income

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    Post-coup foreign direct investment saw a substantial decrease, affecting per capita income which fell from $12,582 in 2013 to $8,600 in 2020.

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    Per capita cost due to the coup was reported to exceed $2,000.

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    By 2023, per capita income rose to $13,243, but was still below the expected level of $19,600.

Long-term Effects on the Economy

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    Credit rating downgrades post-coup and Turkey's placement on the gray list have damaged its international economic image.

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    The government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP increased from 1% in 2015 to 3.2% in 2020.

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    Economic experts indicated that the coup process led to degeneration not only in economic indicators but also in institutions and personnel.